We already knew that Jolly Redd, the shady art dealer in Animal Crossing: New Horizons, is an unscrupulous fellow. He shows up on a rickety boat, invites you into a dimly lit room, and sells artwork that is often fake and sometimes even haunted. But new details from datamining appears to show the odds of getting legit art pieces for your collection, and it reveals Redd is quite the scammer.
According to Twitter user Ninji, the four art pieces have a rolling chance of the real-to-fake distribution. There's a 50% chance that only one will be real, and a 30% chance that you'll have two real and fakes. Your best odds of getting a good distribution is 10%, which gives you three real and only one fake. But that chance is matched by having all four fake and no real art at all. That means Redd could give you absolutely no chance of choosing a real piece, but no counter-balance of having no chance for a fake.
The thread shares some other details as well. If a spot is marked for real art, 20% of the time the game will guarantee it's a piece you haven't already donated to the museum. That helps raise the odds slightly of getting new pieces to help you fill Blathers' collection. It also details how the spots are devoted to different types of artwork. The art appears four spots (designated 1, 2, 3, and 4 in the datamine). Spots 1 and 2 can have paintings, while 3 and 4 can have paintings or sculptures. Spots 2 and 3 will always be small, while 1 and 4 can be any size.
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