In 1993, the Ultimate Fighting Championship burst onto the scene, pitting masters of different martial arts disciplines against one another in a bracket-style tournament. The UFC has evolved and grown in a multitude of ways in the nearly three decades since that first event in Denver. Still, with other major promotions like Bellator and the Professional Fighters League experimenting with bracket-style tournaments, many fans wonder what would happen if UFC returned to its roots and hosted its own. We decided to find out for ourselves, using the best tool at our disposal: EA Sports UFC 4.
Using the current official UFC rankings found on the promotion's website, I constructed eight-person tournament brackets featuring the highest-ranked fighters of each weight class (aside from women's featherweight, since there are no official rankings and EA Sports UFC 4 only has two active fighters from that division). The seeding is based on current ranking, though for some high-profile fighters who are in the process of changing weight classes (like Jon Jones or Cody Garbrandt), I had to plug them in where it made the most sense. I then watched every fight as the A.I.-controlled combatants duked it out. Each fight was scheduled for three rounds, except for the championship fight at the end, which could go five rounds.
As the nearly 80 bouts played out, it quickly became apparent that EA Sports UFC 4 skews heavily in favor of third-round knockouts or technical knockouts. In fact, even with grappling specialists, I was shocked at how few submission attempts succeeded. It certainly wasn't for lack of trying because sometimes even the most striking-focused fighters jumped guard to attempt guillotines in these simulations. Still, very few submissions were successful, perhaps a testament to the A.I. submission defense.
However, regardless of the outcome, I noticed that very few fights were completely one-sided. This is likely an indication that developer EA Canada balanced the fighters to create more competitive bouts even with each fighter featuring different attributes and tendencies. While this is a good idea in theory, when you're simulating fights to see how the game predicts they'd play out in real life, it results in some quite surprising upsets.
Without any further ado, let's get to the results of these tournaments.
Click any bracket image to see its larger version.
Strawweight
Current Real-Life Champion: Rose Namajunas
EA Sports UFC 4 Prediction: Rose Namajunas
Fight of the Tournament: Namajunas vs. Weili
The strawweight division is undoubtedly the most exciting women's division in the UFC, with the belt changing hands rapidly following Joanna Jędrzejczyk's loss to Rose Namajunas in 2017. In the time since, Namajunas, Jessica Andrade (who has since moved up in weight), and Zhang Weili have all held the belt. According to this simulation, the four former champions of the 115-pound division (Namajunas, Jędrzejczyk, Weili, and inaugural champ Carla Esparza) advanced past their opening-round matchups. Weili vs. Jędrzejczyk was one of the greatest fights of all time, so a rematch was exciting. Still, the best fight in this tournament came from Namajunas vs. Weili in the finals, with Namajunas securing the victory thanks to a third-round armbar submission.
Flyweight (W)
Current Real-Life Champion: Valentina Shevchenko
EA Sports UFC 4 Prediction: Katlyn Chookagian
Fight of the Tournament: Andrade vs. Calderwood
In contrast to the strawweight division, a single champion has dominated women's flyweight pretty much since its inception. Following inaugural champion Nicco Montaño's unceremonious relinquishing of the title in 2018, Valentina Shevchenko has reigned supreme, facing little hardship in her five title defenses. As such, she is one of just four fighters to achieve a five-star overall rating in EA Sports UFC 4, making her the runaway favorite to win this tournament.
However, the video game had other plans, as Lauren Murphy (who, interestingly enough, is scheduled to be Shevchenko's next title defense in September) pulled off the big upset in the semifinals. Unfortunately, Murphy could not carry that momentum into the championship fight, and longtime contender Katlyn Chookagian took her out with a fourth-round KO.
Bantamweight (W)
Current Real-Life Champion: Amanda Nunes
EA Sports UFC 4 Prediction: Germaine de Randamie
Fight of the Tournament: De Randamie vs. Holm
As dominant as Shevchenko is in the flyweight division, Amanda Nunes has been even more ruthless. The greatest female fighter of all time has ruled the bantamweight division with an iron fist ever since taking the belt from Miesha Tate in 2016. As such, she's another member of the elite five-star overall rating club in EA Sports UFC 4. And just like Shevchenko before her, Nunes did not come out on top in this simulation. Instead, Germaine de Randamie overcame a wild, back-and-forth fight against Holly Holm before toppling Nunes in the championship bout.
Flyweight (M)
Current Real-Life Champion: Brandon Moreno
EA Sports UFC 4 Prediction: Cody Garbrandt
Fight of the Tournament: Askarov vs. Benavidez
Former bantamweight champ Cody Garbrandt has had his sights set on flyweight for a while now. While his original plan of dropping down to face then-champion Deiveson Figueiredo fell through due to health complications, Garbrandt is now scheduled to face Kai Kara-France later this year. Kara-France isn't in EA Sports UFC 4, so I plugged Garbrandt into the tournament where Kara-France would have been based on the UFC rankings – which just so happened to line him up against Figueiredo.
When current champ Brandon Moreno lost in shocking fashion to Tim Elliott in the first round, the stage seemed all but set for the once-dominant champion Figueiredo to reclaim his belt, but he also lost in the first round. After winning the original fight he wanted in the first round, Garbrandt went on to put on arguably the most dominant string of performances of any tournament I simulated, brutally knocking out former title challengers Joseph Benavidez and Alex Perez to claim the championship belt.
Bantamweight (M)
Current Real-Life Champion: Aljamain Sterling
EA Sports UFC 4 Prediction: Petr Yan
Fight of the Tournament: Sandhagen vs. Font